Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Promises $4,747 Savings Per Family, But Analysis Shows Numbers May Be Inflated

By Grand Rapids Press Wire

Republican gubernatorial candidate Perry Johnson has taken center stage in Michigan's crowded governor's race with a bold proposal to eliminate the state income tax, promising families would save an average of $4,747 annually. However, fact-checkers and budget experts are questioning whether these savings claims accurately reflect what Michigan residents would actually keep in their pockets.

The Proposal's Appeal

Johnson's campaign points to a simple mathematical calculation: Michigan's current 4.25% flat income tax rate applied to a family of four earning around $111,690 would result in approximately $4,747 in annual tax payments. Eliminate that tax, the logic goes, and families keep that money in their pockets for groceries, housing, and savings.

"We must not accept failure. We must not accept billions of dollars in unemployment fraud, millions wasted on a failed secretary of state website," Johnson wrote in a letter to the editor defending his plans. "We must investigate to learn whether the fraud that happened in Minnesota is happening here."

The campaign has reportedly spent over $10 million on a advertising blitz, with Johnson pumping his own money into the race after spending more than $20 million on previous failed campaigns for governor and president.

Savings May Be Overstated

Bridge Michigan, a non-partisan news organization, has published analysis suggesting most families would not save as much as Johnson claims. The fact-check points out that taxes aren't as straightforward as the simple percentage calculation.

After exemptions, subtractions and credits, single and joint filers who earn between $110,000 and $120,000 paid an effective Michigan income tax rate of 3.01% in 2021, according to state data. Filers with gross incomes in that range paid an average state tax of $3,406 that year — about 30% less than Johnson's claimed savings.

Bob Schneider, a state budget expert with the non-partisan Citizens Research Council of Michigan, told the publication that "Treasury data is a better way to look it" than theoretical calculations.

According to US Census Bureau data, Michigan's median income for a four-person household is currently about $123,010. Filers who earned that much in 2021 paid an effective tax rate of 3.11%, or about $3,826.

The analysis also notes that because Michigan has a flat tax — 4.25% regardless of income — higher earners would save more on a dollar-by-dollar basis if the tax is eliminated. The 2.7 million Michigan filers with adjusted gross incomes of $50,000 would have saved an average of $162 in 2021, per state data.

Budget Questions Remain

Beyond the savings calculation, major questions remain about how Johnson and other candidates with similar proposals would fund state government operations after cutting one of its primary revenue sources.

Johnson's proposal has sparked several reader inquiries:

• Johnson says he will eliminate income tax, my question is, what revenues will be used to fund the state's operations? — Arlon from Sault Ste. Marie
• Can cutting 2 cents from every state dollar spent actually replace state income tax? — Bean from Brimley

Other Republican gubernatorial candidates including Mike Cox, Aric Nesbitt, and Ralph Rebandt have also called for axing the income tax, while others have proposed property tax cuts or elimination.

Johnson's Defense

In response to criticism, Johnson has defended his background as a "quality guru" who has helped companies including automakers improve efficiency through statistical process control and quality standards.

For decades, I have helped companies — including automakers — improve efficiency, eliminate waste and meet the highest standards, through statistical process control, quality standards and audits, Johnson wrote. That's exactly the kind of experience that Michigan government desperately needs.

He also defended his decision to invest his own money into his campaigns, calling it independence rather than dependence on lobbyists or establishment insiders. I don't owe anyone anything, Johnson wrote. I have not yet accepted donations from anyone, and certainly will never be beholden to lobbyists or establishment insiders. I'm accountable only to the people of Michigan.

Johnson also addressed his 2022 campaign challenges, claiming he was a victim of petition fraud. My campaign staff testified against the individuals responsible, and they have since been convicted and sentenced, he wrote.

What's Next

As the Michigan governor's race intensifies, candidates continue to pitch bold solutions to voters. The debate over tax policy — particularly the state income tax — has become a central issue in the campaign.

Johnson's proposal to eliminate the income tax faces scrutiny not just on the mathematics of savings claims, but on the broader question of how Michigan will fund essential services without that revenue stream. With other candidates proposing similar tax cuts, the race has evolved into a competition of competing visions for the state's fiscal future.